Supercharging/turbo charging

[glenn hofstetter]

Follow me on this. There are about 15000 vipers in the world, 3000 or so are outside the USA. There must be 200 wrecked by now which leaves 11800 vipers in the country. I'd guess that about 100 are already charged and another 100 are so committed to their current modifications that adding a puffer wouldn't work out. This leaves 11600. Of these I'd bet half aren't interested in a blown engine which now leaves 5800. From this number subtract 500 for people who can't afford the modification and for rentals. Take another 200 for cars "on the lot". This leaves a real market of 5100 cars although I bet its much less.This number represents 1/10 of a corvette production year.
Divide this total 5100 cars by the people offering or proposing to offer a blower. The answer is less than 1000 cars per builder. This is too thin to keep everyone in the market. So I'd suggest that as a group we support the builders who support us,the builders who know the car and have made a commitment to a charger already. Don't encourage new comers suggesting pie in the sky horsepower gains for $10,000 to $20,000. Some can't even keep up with their current market. I know one thing,I wouldn't want to introduce a package. Anyone doing the math can see the circumstances. Anyone new making an offer hasn't done their home work and I sure wouldn't want something as complicated as a charger from them, what else didn't they think of?

 

[MichaelP]

Glenn, while I may not agree with all you say you do make some VERY interesting points.

Seems very little work to go around to an ever growing number of tuners.

 

[Gerald]

forgot to include the number of VIpers that are resold, once, twice and three times changing the mods out of the previous owner(s) and also owners upgrading and upgrading and upgrading..
So i would EASY TRIPLE those numbers.

Check those numbers again. I suspect your average viper owner that upgrades continues to do so to feel the "ultimate" addiction of speed...


Gerald

 

[MichaelP]

Well a VERY quick scan of the 275 Vipers for sale on this site, ebay and Auto Trader and a CONSERVATE number of less than 20% of them have serious mods. Such as Turbos or super chargers.

So if you are counting only cars in the US that are owned by people who will be putting on a turbo or a super charger in the next year I would GUESS the number is actually lower than the figure of 5800.

 

[onerareviper]

glenn hofstetter,

I couldn't disagree more. It's called a FREE MARKET, and only the strong will survive. The sh*t will float to the surface, so I'm not worried. It's also the duty of the customer to do the research - remember, 'Buyer Beware'.

THE MORE COMPETITION, THE BETTER!!!

Take for example, Sean Roe. I couldn't even dream of a blower, until this man produced an affordable unit. And I can't wait to see real world 1/4 mile numbers for this setup. Forget about the dyno #'s. Those don't get you to the finish line first. I'm not comparing this unit to the current $20,000+ monsters (Sean doesn't either), but I think the differences in 1/4 mile times will be less than people expect. At least I hope so, because that's all I can afford. I feel it is a very exciting time to own a Viper, especially if your into mods.

P.S. - Lets keep it clean boys, and may the best tuner win!!!

 

[varanus]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by glenn hofstetter:
Follow me on this. There are about 15000 vipers in the world, 3000 or so are outside the USA. There must be 200 wrecked by now which leaves 11800 vipers in the country. I'd guess that about 100 are already charged and another 100 are so committed to their current modifications that adding a puffer wouldn't work out. This leaves 11600. Of these I'd bet half aren't interested in a blown engine which now leaves 5800. From this number subtract 500 for people who can't afford the modification and for rentals. Take another 200 for cars "on the lot". This leaves a real market of 5100 cars although I bet its much less.This number represents 1/10 of a corvette production year.
Divide this total 5100 cars by the people offering or proposing to offer a blower. The answer is less than 1000 cars per builder. This is too thin to keep everyone in the market. So I'd suggest that as a group we support the builders who support us,the builders who know the car and have made a commitment to a charger already. Don't encourage new comers suggesting pie in the sky horsepower gains for $10,000 to $20,000. Some can't even keep up with their current market. I know one thing,I wouldn't want to introduce a package. Anyone doing the math can see the circumstances. Anyone new making an offer hasn't done their home work and I sure wouldn't want something as complicated as a charger from them, what else didn't they think of?

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

So we assume you will not buy a SC from people well known such as Sean Roe & others who have a reputation to protect? If profit potential is as low as you say, why would they put their necks on the line unless they felt their products will prove themselves out.
Remember as time goes on the pioneers of modifications have the highest costs and risks. Other tuners watch and learn. They see other ways to improve and possibly cut costs. Just because a few years later they are able to do it cheaper doesn't mean it won't be a good product.
You do have some valid issues that I am sure these tuners have looked at already. Remember the hi powered mods don't always have to make money. If it enhances the company's image so people buy your other products e.g brakes, headers, etc., then it is a profit maker.
My understanding is that the Viper was not a moneymaker directly for Dodge, it actually lost money I think. But other reasons such as company image, experimenting with fast car development (time to bring to market), etc made it worthwhile to them. Had the beancounters had their way Glen, your signature would say 2000 red corvette instead of 2000 GTS. Ouch!
P.S, Us low buck supercharger and turbo guys will stop & pull over and wait for you while you catch up

:LOL J/K, not meant to be a flame.

 

[glenn hofstetter]

Varanus:
If you cruise this board a lot you would have seen two new names asking for our input about their designing a turbocharge system for vipers at a cost of $15,000 to $20,000 each unit plus installation. I want to protect the suppliers who have supported us in this area like DLM, Roe, Dan Cragin, Golden West,etc. These vendors have prices from $7,000 to $25,000 so its not a case of cost. I will be supercharging with one of them this autumn. New manufactures mean new learning curves which we individual owners have to live with. New products are not always better or cheaper. Dodge did lose money on Vipers but I doubt that a new tuner will lose money on a $15,000 system so he can sell you a set of headers for $1500. My point is the new guys did not do their homework on the market and therefore I assume did not properly do their homework on the installation. One of these guys is claiming 1000 Hp. If you are going to claim HP you are asking us to believe you have already done the engineering. Any company that does engineering on a product to a point where a HP can be claimed without knowing the sizes of the market is not well managed. I don't want a product as technical as a charger from them. If you or someone else wants to be their test car you get what you deserve.

 

[GONABITE]

It is funny you brought this up I was just discussing this with a friend of mine and trying to break the numbers down as you did. And this is where I feel the reason that a set of headers is almost 2000.00 and many other upgrades are som much as compared to a if you will a normal small block chevy where you can but a set of headers for 200.00. Since retailers know these numbers exist and they have to account for there R&D as well as product cost and any other overhead the price needs to be well inflated to cover there cost figuring that they are not going to sell 10,000 sets of anything so they have to get there money back and make a profit all at the same time. I would love to know lets take Roes new and coming supercharger for example he has been working on the for over 2 years and the man hours it has taken him to get where he is as well as the materials to produce this *** many it is going to take to break even before even making a profit on 1 unit really how long will it take him to actually pocket 6000.00 you have to give all tuners much credit to stick there lives out on a limb for us guys even though it is their choice to be in the business.

 

[AJ]

nevermind...



<FONT COLOR="#ff0000" SIZE="1" FACE="Verdana, Arial">This message has been edited by AJ on 05-02-2002 at 05:11 PM</font>

 

[varanus]

Glen, I did not say that all new products are better and cheaper. but some are in one or both cases. Computers are a perfect example of something getting better and cheaper.

In terms of a tuner doing his homeowrk, you said the magic words " I assume". Granted it is a logical thought process you used, but not neccessarily always leading to the truth. I cannot speak for these "new tuners". But let's just suppose that they have not actually built the product, but from years of experience have conceived of a design that they think will work. In theory it should generate the numbers thay are talking about. Now it just needs to be built and proven it works. But before they spend the money for further R & D they decide to to ask people their input and reactions for a horsepower and dollar amount to see if it is a viable project for them.
This to me sounds like they are doing their homework in a prudent fashion. They have a product in the planning, but why spend lots of $$ on it if everyone tells them they are not interested. If this is the case, the product gets shelved. If people say yes, it is a price i can live with for the xx hp you claim, then they can go to the next step in running the estimated numbers from responses and see if it is a money maker. In this case of Tom Welch he is doing just that with the turbo setup.
Now in the case of another unamed tuner who has made some posts, you can only assume he hasn't done his homework on the market. On the outside I agree with you-the market share looks mighty small. But unless you know exactly what goes on in their business, you can't say for sure what homework they have done.
Back to the losing 15K to sell a 2k header system, you are right. in some respect. But when they sell many 2k header systems, the profit may indeed go up.
Believe it or not, a lot a really talented people do things without doing the $$ first. If a new tuner has a successful tuning business the viper turbo project may be a pet project for him. He hopes it will sell, but if not he can afford to absorb the loss because the rest of his business can easily absorb it. But it's something he's obsessed with.
Early in my business career I spent a lot of $ and time doing projects that lost a lot $$ with no hope of a return. However business was good and I just wrote it off as marketing research and advertising. Those projects garnered a lot of press and notariety for my business and it grew. No one came to me for those projects to be duplicated in particular, but wanted the more everyday stuff. So that is what I meant that a product itself doesn't have to sell directly. The product may lend your company so much prestige and notariety that you overall business grows selling other products.

Your last statement 'If you or someone else wants to be their test car you get what you deserve." Are you trying to say that the test car is sure to be a disaster? If so, are you privy to info on these tuners that the rest of us don't know?

In you first post you made some good statements,but then concluded that your thought process was absolute and therefore none of the tuners you were refering to had any idea what the hell they were doning and up against. Maybe you are right, but i think it was very presumptious (sp) to condemn them as all being unworthy. Yes we should all support the tuners you listed, but just remember they were new too and a post like yours could have done them harm when they were starting out.
GONABITE is right though "you have to give all tuners much credit to stick there lives out on a limb for us guys even though it is their choice to be in the business"